BBC World News

[Avner]

[Avner]

Ten Most Significant World Events in 2015

 

 

10. Saudis Intervene in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes in late March against its neighbour Yemen with the help of nine other, mainly Arab, countries. The move came after Houthi rebels captured Yemen's capital, Sana'a, and drove Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi into exile in Saudi Arabia. The Houthis, who belong to a minority Shiite sect, receive support from Iran, Saudi Arabia's mortal enemy. The Houthis also have the support of forces loyal to former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted during the Arab Spring and who once had good relations with Riyadh.

 

The Saudi-led intervention put the United States in a bind. Washington feared that the intervention could become a quagmire and worried that Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), an enemy of the Houthis as well as the United States, would benefit from the ensuing chaos. But the desire to prevent a rift with Riyadh prevailed, and Washington provided intelligence information, weapons, and aerial refuelling capabilities while urging the Saudi-led coalition to minimize civilian casualties.

The civilian toll in Yemen has nonetheless been substantial, as airstrikes and a maritime blockade have intensified Yemen's many existing problems. As predicted, AQAP has used the fighting to its advantage, as has ISIS. In a potentially positive development, a seven-day ceasefire went into effect today so that peace talks could begin.

 

9. China Builds Islands in the South China Sea.

China claims much of the South China Sea—the bulk of which lies far from the Chinese mainland—through its nine-dash line. Beijing is trying to give substance to its claims, which the five countries with coastlines on the sea vigorously dispute, by creating artificial islands around reefs and submerged rocks. It is, in turn, building airstrips and military installations on the newly formed islands. The United States takes no position on the merits of China's claims in the South China Sea. But it insists that China's claim that the twelve-mile zone around these new islands are its territorial waters has no basis in international law.

 

Washington—and most governments in Southeast Asia—worry that Beijing will eventually use the new islands to choke off freedom of navigation in the area. In October, after repeated official statements about how "the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows," a U.S. Navy destroyer sailed through waters China claims as its own in a freedom-of-naval-operations (FONOPS) mission. China protested the maneuver as "a grave provocation politically and militarily." The stakes in the dispute are enormous. More than $5 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea each year, and its waters contain rich fisheries and potentially vast oil and mineral deposits. Then, there is the question of whether China will supplant the United States as the dominant power in the region.

 

8. China Devalues the Renminbi Amidst an Economic Slowdown. 

In August, Beijing sent shock waves through global financial markets when it devalued its currency, variously called the yuan or renminbi, against the dollar. Chinese officials said the move was intended to bring the yuan in line with its market value, something Western governments had been urging for years. Many investors took the devaluation as a sign that the Chinese economy was slowing down faster than reported and that Beijing was using its currency to reignite growth. The Shanghai stock market plunged in late August, further unsettling global markets and shaking confidence in China's handling of economic policy. In October, China reported that third-quarter growth hit 6.9 percent, higher than expected but well below the 10 percent growth China has averaged over the past three decades. And doubts exist about the accuracy of the numbers that Beijing reported. Despite the bad economic news coming out of China, the IMF designated the renminbi as a primary world currency in December, which opened the door to its greater use in global financial transactions. But investors and governments remain nervous that China's economy, which has been a significant driver of global growth in recent years, will continue to slow, and as a result, so will economic growth worldwide.

 

7. The World Strikes a Deal on Climate Change.

The world's climate is changing, in good part because of human activity. But governments worldwide have been slow to address the potentially catastrophic threat. The landmark 1992 Kyoto Treaty failed to deliver its promised emissions cuts, and not just because the U.S. Senate declined to provide its consent. The 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit opened to much fanfare but was laced with anger and produced little. The 195 countries in Paris in late November for a new climate change summit avoided that fate. After two weeks of intense talks, they had the Paris Climate Accord, the first to commit nearly every country to reduce its emissions of heat-trapping gases. However, the thirty-one-page document hardly solves the climate change challenge, so some climate change activists criticized it for being too little or too late. To get the deal, negotiators left many details to be worked out later. Even if agreement is reached on those details, the success of the Paris Climate Accord ultimately depends on national governments taking and enforcing steps to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels. Domestic politics could be a significant hurdle on that front.

 

6. Russia Intervenes in Syria.

The four-year-long Syrian civil war, which has killed more than 200,000 people and forced as many as nine million to flee their homes, took a turn in September when Russia, without warning, began conducting airstrikes from bases in Syria. Moscow insisted it intervened to join the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Still, in practice, its planes targeted Syrian rebel groups looking to topple Russia's long-time ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Russia's military operations were not coordinated with those the United States and its allies were conducting against the Islamic State, raising concerns about an unintended confrontation between the two sides. A version of those fears materialized in late November when Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian fighter jet, killing one of the pilots. Turkish officials insisted that the Russian plane had ignored repeated warnings not to enter Turkish airspace. Russian officials disputed those claims and accused Ankara of a "planned provocation." On the diplomatic side, Russia's intervention prompted an effort to find a negotiated settlement to the Syrian conflict. Despite significant fanfare and high-level participation on all sides, the talks stumbled over a core disagreement: Moscow wants Assad to stay, and Washington and its allies want him to go.

 

5. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Finally Gets Done.

After seven years of negotiations, the United States and eleven other countries finally agreed on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the world's largest regional trade deal, in October. The agreement, a critical part of the Obama administration's rebalance to Asia, would set trade rules governing roughly 40 percent of the global economy. The deal was made possible when the U.S. Congress voted in June to give President Barack Obama Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which restricts Congress to a simple up-down vote on trade deals. U.S. negotiating partners refused to make significant concessions in the TPP negotiations until they knew that Congress could not revise their agreement with the president. In a sign of how controversial trade deals can be on Capitol Hill, just forty-one Democrats voted for TPA. Now that Obama has TPP, he has to persuade Congress to pass the bill to put it into effect. Critics are already marshalling their arguments for why Congress should vote down the implementing legislation. A vote on TPP likely won't happen until after the 2016 elections, if it happens at all.

 

4. The EU Rebuffs Greece's Demand for Austerity Relief.

"I fought the law, and the law won." Alexis Tsipras learned the hard way what the Bobby Fuller Four only sang about. Tsipras became Greek prime minister in January 2015 by pledging to get Greece better repayment terms on its massive debt. Despite appealing to other debt-burdened European countries for solidarity and trying to isolate EU power Germany by dredging up memories of Nazi atrocities, the EU refused to give Tsipras what he wanted. He then tried to strengthen his hand by calling a July referendum in which 61 percent of Greeks voted against accepting the EU's offer. Nonetheless, the EU held firm, insisting that Greece would get help only if it agreed to significant and painful economic reforms. Tsipras blinked. A week after the no vote, and faced with the imminent collapse of the Greek economy, he accepted the EU's offer. Despite not delivering the promised relief, Tsipras and his Syriza Party won new elections in September. But Greece's economy remains troubled. It has shrunk by 25 percent over the past five years, official unemployment is nearly 25 percent, and doubts remain over whether Greece can repay its debts as long as it remains in the Eurozone. So "Grexit," and its possible shock to the global financial system, could soon be back in the news.

 

3. Negotiations on Iran's Nuclear Program Produce a Deal.

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. That old saying could be the motto of the Iran nuclear negotiations. Conducted off and on since 2002, they finally produced a deal in July. Formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it wasn't sealed until September when forty-two Democratic senators voted to block a resolution to stop it. Neither the P5+1 nor Iran got all it wanted in the JCPOA. Iran got sanctions relief, but it had to agree to give up 97 percent of its stockpile of enriched uranium, slash its number of centrifuges by two-thirds, and shut down a heavy water reactor. Iran also had to agree to on-site inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. If Iran violates the JCPOA, sanctions can be re-imposed. To extract these concessions from Iran, the P5+1 agreed to let the deal's critical provisions expire after ten or fifteen years. The White House says the agreement will prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon for more than a decade and increase the "breakout time" should Tehran decide to acquire nuclear weapons. The deal's critics, and there are many, both at home and abroad, say the deal failed to deliver the only acceptable outcome: dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program.

 

2. ISIS Terrorists Strike on Three Continents.

When President Obama told an interviewer on November 12 that "we have contained" the Islamic State, he had in mind its geographical ambitions in the Middle East. A day later, the world discovered that the Islamic State was taking its fight beyond its home territory. Three teams of ISIS terrorists struck at four locations in Paris, killing 130 people. But ISIS's efforts to take the fight to its enemies had begun even earlier. In July, a suicide bomber loyal to the Islamic State killed thirty-three people in Suruc, Turkey, not far from the border with Syria. Three months later, two suicide bombers, one the brother of the Suruc bomber, killed 102 people at a peace rally in Ankara. On October 31, a bomb brought down a Russian passenger airliner over the Sinai, killing all 224 people on board. And then, on December 2, a husband and wife who had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State's caliph, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, killed fourteen people in a mass shooting in San Bernardino, California. The attacks prompted renewed Western airstrikes against the Islamic State, redirected domestic politics in France and the United States, and raised ominous questions about what 2016 might bring.

 

1. Refugee Crisis Roils Europe.

A decade ago, experts were writing books with titles like Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century. In 2015, Europe could hardly handle its problems, let alone run the world. Still struggling to emerge from a deep economic recession, it was hit by a wave of nearly a million refugees. Most were seeking to escape the horrors of the Syrian civil war or instability and violence elsewhere. Others, however, were economic migrants seeking better job opportunities. The influx of refugees provided heart-wrenching images of people desperate to reach Europe, sometimes failing with deadly consequences but more often succeeding. The influx exposed Europe's porous borders, highlighted differences within Europe over how to handle immigrants, and gave new life to Europe's many nationalist and anti-immigrant parties. The refugee crisis also created political problems across the Atlantic. The Obama administration announced in September that it would take in "at least 10,000" Syrian refugees in 2016. But in the aftermath of the Paris and San Bernardino attacks, compassion quickly swung to concern and federal, state, and local politicians moved to block Muslim refugees from entering the United States or relocating to their communities. As long as Syria's civil war persists and the European economy attracts job-seekers, the refugee and migrant pressure on Europe will continue.

 

Source

[Tedder]

G7 Summit Kicks Off in Sicily with Global Leaders and First-time U.S. President Xiomara de la Cruz

 

TAORMINA, Sicily — The picturesque town of Taormina has become the focal point of global politics as it hosts the G7 Summit, gathering the world’s most powerful leaders to discuss pressing international issues from terrorism and climate change to economic inequality and global migration. This year’s summit is notably marked by the participation of the new U.S. President Xiomara de la Cruz, attending her first major international meeting since taking office.

 

Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni opened the summit with a call for unity and action, highlighting the critical challenges facing the global community. He emphasized the importance of collaborative efforts to address the specter of terrorism, the ongoing crisis in Syria, and the urgent need to combat climate change effectively.

 

Key Issues on the Table

• Terrorism: Leaders are set to strengthen international counter-terrorism measures in response to increasing global threats.
• Syria and Middle Eastern Conflicts: A coordinated strategy is sought to bring peace and stability to the region, with a focus on humanitarian aid and political solutions.
• Climate Change: Commitment to the Paris Agreement is a priority, with discussions centered on enhancing global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainable practices.
• Global Migration: As Italy stands on the frontline of the European migration crisis, the summit will look to develop fair and humane policies to manage the flow of migrants and refugees.
• Economic Resilience: Discussions will also tackle how to ensure that the benefits of globalization and technological advances are shared more equitably, addressing the root causes of economic inequality.

Distinguished Attendees

In addition to the core G7 members — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States — the summit includes the European Union represented by Council President Donald Tusk and Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Notably, the summit extends its dialogue to several invited guests, including leaders from Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, and Tunisia, reflecting a broader engagement with emerging economies, particularly from Africa.

 

Global Leaders Weigh In

The presence of key international figures like United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, and World Bank President Jim Yong Kim underscores the comprehensive approach the G7 aims to take this year, addressing interconnected global issues that transcend national borders.

 

As the summit progresses, the world watches closely how President Xiomara de la Cruz will navigate these international waters in her debut on the global stage. The outcomes of this summit could define the future directions of international policies and cooperation, with a significant impact on global geopolitical dynamics.

 

Prime Minister Gentiloni’s opening remarks highlighted the spirit of cooperation that Taormina embodies, urging leaders to transform challenges into opportunities for growth, peace, and prosperity. The summit is not just a test of diplomatic acuity for the new U.S. President but a moment for seasoned and new leaders alike to forge paths toward a more stable and just global community.

[DMH]

 

Q1, 2017 World News Updates

 

Economic Crisis in Venezuela Could Impact Wider Hemisphere - SOUTH AMERICA

Caracas - Venezuela, under the reign of dictator Nicholas Maduro, continues to suffer from economic decline as inflation reaches a historic level and growing discontent leading to mass migration out of the country. As the economic crisis continues to grow in Venezuela, the Maduro Regime has expanded its crackdown on democratic institutions and on some vocal members of the opposition. Migrants fleeing the crippled economy have placed significant pressure on neighbors like Colombia and could possibly begin to make their way towards the Southern United States. The Maduro Regime has condemned the United States as the cause of their economic woes as a result of economic sanctions currently placed on the country.

 

 

Keiko Fujimori Declines to Pardon Father "At this Time" In Spite of Calls from Brother - SOUTH AMERICA

Lima - Right-wing Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori has reaffirmed her position of not offering a pardon to her father, former controversial Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori. Alberto Fujimori's tenure as President of Peru was infamous in the 1990s for rampant human rights abuses, though supporters point to increased security as a result of his aggressive campaign against left-wing terrorist organizations. President Fujimori ran on not pardoning her father during the 2016 Peruvian Presidential Election that saw her Fujimorist party, the National Force, take power. President Fujimori did seemingly leave the door open to possibly pardoning her father in the future. Kenji Fujimori, brother of President Fujimori and son of Alberto Fujimori, has publicly rebuked his sister, citing her unwillingness to pardon their father.

 

 

Former Finance Minister Emmanuel Macron Declines to Run for French Presidency - EUROPE

Paris - Former French Minister of Economics, Industry and Digital Affairs under President François Hollande Emmanuel Macron has declined to run for the office of the Presidency in 2017. This comes after significant rumors of a possible presidential bid under the banner of a new political party. The decision by Macron, who had led in some opinion polls, has caused a shift in the overall electoral landscape for control of the Élysée Palace. Initial frontrunner François Fillon, a former Prime Minister and head of the center-right Republicans, has been marred in scandal since "Penelopegate" broke to the press regarding the employment of his wife. Pundits now fear that far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen could be well-positioned to win a spot to compete for the presidency on the second round. With the left now split between Socialist Party nominee Benoît Hamon, who is suffering in the polls due to unpopularity related to the incumbent Socialist government, and rising challenger Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the populist left-wing La France Insoumise, France could be heading into a very chaotic campaign season.

 

 

Aftermath of Remain Victory in EU Referendum Rocks UK Labour Party Leadership as Local Elections Loom - EUROPE

London - The decision by UK voters to narrowly remain with the European Union following the 2016 referendum has continued to shape UK politics as the Labour Party faces a contentious leadership battle. Citing lack of confidence in current Labour Party leader and Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn, opponents successfully triggered a challenge to his leadership at the helm of the embattled party. Many critics of Corbyn's leadership have pointed to his lackluster embrace of the Remain campaign in 2016, despite the majority of the party supporting the Remain campaign. Former Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn has emerged as the primary opposition challenger to Corbyn, amassing support from moderate and establishment elements of the Labour Party. Labour MP Chuka Umunna has emerged as a dark horse candidate with minimal support. The drop in popularity for Corbyn since the Remain victory could play a key role in determining whether he will remain as party leader.

 

 

The Latvian Russian Union Sees Historic Victories in Eastern Latvia - EUROPE

Daugavpils - The Latvia Russian Union, previously effectively a fringe party in Latvian politics following losing all their parliamentary representation in the early 2010s, has roared back to life with strong victories across Russian-majority townships and mayoralties in Eastern Latvia. The Latvia Russian Union has historically been supported primarily by ethnic Russians and other Russian-speaking minorities and advocates for Russian and Latgalian being recognized as co-official languages in municipalities where at least 20% of the population are native speakers of such a language. The party also supports stronger ties with Russia, has supported the annexation of Crimea, and stands out as the only major political organization to oppose Latvia's membership in NATO. The Latvia Russian Union did also make gains in city council races in Riga, the nation's capital that holds a sizable Russian minority population. The Latvia Russian Union and its leaders, such as MEP Tatjana Ždanoka, have had cordial relations with prominent Russian politicians.

 

 

Eastern Afghanistan Becomes Three-Way Battle Between Afghan Forces, the Taliban, and the Islamic State - MIDDLE EAST

Jalalabad - The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has gained a foothold in eastern Afghanistan, challenging both Taliban and Afghan Government forces. The rise of ISKP has placed a significant strain on resources for the Afghan National Government, as it struggles to maintain widespread legitimacy outside of the capital of Kabul. The Taliban is similarly hamstring by the increased conflict with ISKP, an entity it sees as its rival. As tension continues to rise in Eastern Afghanistan, how the United States reacts could be critical.

 

 

Iran Nuclear Deal Continues Under President Xiomara de la Cruz - MIDDLE EAST

Tehran - The de la Cruz Administration has opted to continue to adhere to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. International observers have confirmed that Iran has been in compliance with the historic agreement since it was signed in 2016. Republicans had run against the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2016 and many conservative voters continue to express concern about the deal. Foreign policy experts are in general agreement that the Iran Nuclear Deal is working in its goal of deterring Iran from creating nuclear weaponry, but continue to urge caution and vigilance to maintain compliance on all sides. 

 

 

Intensified Fighting Across Multiple African Regions Spark Concerns of Humanitarian Crisis - AFRICA

Juba - As fighting rages across multiple regions of Africa, experts warn that the world could see the worst global humanitarian crisis in history in the coming years if conflict continues to rage. Two regions in particular have become flashpoints in the wider continental challenges with armed violence. The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and opposition forces have ripped through the world's newest nation of South Sudan as the ongoing civil war intensifies. UN observers have warned that wide scale famine could further decimate the already war-torn population. The terrorist group Boko Haram continues to launch various attacks in northeastern Nigeria, as well as in neighboring Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, causing widespread displacement and casualties. Recent movements by the group's continued allegiance to ISIS raises concerns about the spread of radical Islamist terrorism expanding in West Africa. The resulting conflicts have exacerbated issues of African migrants, putting significant pressure on European and Middle Eastern nations. 

 

 

Assassination of Kim Jong-nam Removes Prominent Possible Opponent to North Korean Regime - ASIA

Kuala Lampur - International experts now believe that Kim Jong-nam, the son of deceased former North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il and half-brother of current North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, has been assassinated by the North Korean Regime following exposure to VX nerve agent at Kuala Lampur International Airport in Malaysia. Kim Jong-nam had been living abroad since his exile from North Korea in 2003, primarily in the city of Macau. North Korea has denied the allegations that they played a role in the assassination of Kim Jong-nam and have criticized Malaysia's preliminary findings as a partnership with South Korea. International condemnation has been fierce as one of the last remaining prominent figures within the North Korean exile community has been killed.

 

 

University Students in Thailand Launch Mass Civil Disobedience Protest Against Military Junta - ASIA

Bangkok - University students in Bangkok have launched a civil disobedience campaign against the military junta that has been in power in Thailand since 2014 following a military coup. Non-violent sit-in demonstrations have sprung up at Kasetsart University, the largest university in Thailand, and Bangkok University as students demand the restoration of democracy and reinstitution of civil liberties that have been heavily curtailed by the junta since it took power. Local reports have indicated a large police presence at both universities as the situation remains tense between the opposing forces. Rumors have grown that the military junta, led by military-backed Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, is considering establishing a mandatory curfew and could take action to end the protests should they persist, citing the protests interfering with educational services.

 

 

Chinese Communist Party Sees Surprising Setback as Moderate John Tsang Elected Next Hong Kong Executive - ASIA

Hong Kong - International pundits were surprised to see that Beijing's preferred Chief Executive for Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, was defeated by the pro-Beijing, but regarded as more moderate, John Tsang. The surprising victory comes as pro-democracy and moderate pro-Beijing elements placed their electoral votes in favor of Tsang, for a final vote tally of 609-564-21 with 601 needed to win. John Tsang is the longest-serving Financial Secretary of Hong Kong from 2007 to the present. Tsang will now be set to attempt to implement the goals of his 75-page election platform entitled "Convergence of Hearts, Proactive Enablement", with a promise of revisiting the possibility of the Article 23 national security legislation and the possibility of relaunching political reform. Some additional policies pursued by Tsang included introducing a progressive profit tax, developing New Territories North and East Lantau and abolishing all Territory-wide System Assessment (TSA) and Basic Competency Assessment (BCA) tests, among others. Reports within the CCP have indicated frustration with how the preferred candidate of Beijing could fail to win, despite offering tepid congratulations to Tsang.

[Tedder]

Global Ransomware Attack Causes Chaos

 

In an alarming turn of events, a global ransomware attack has wreaked havoc across multiple industries worldwide, with a disturbing message demanding payment in Bitcoin to unlock affected systems. Among the high-profile victims are the British advertising giant WPP, numerous Ukrainian firms including the state power company, and even Kiev's main airport, hinting at the widespread and indiscriminate nature of the attack. The ransomware, dubbed "NotPetya" by cybersecurity firm Kaspersky Lab due to its similarities to the Petya malware, has also compromised systems at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, forcing a manual check on radiation levels after the Windows-based sensors were disabled.

 

The US National Security Council has confirmed that federal agencies are actively investigating the cyber-attacks. The council emphasized America’s commitment to identifying and holding the perpetrators accountable. Similarly, the US Department of Homeland Security has advised affected entities not to pay the demanded ransoms, as compliance does not guarantee the restoration of access to the encrypted files. Interpol has also entered the fray, announcing that it is "closely monitoring" the situation and coordinating with member countries to address the crisis effectively.

 

According to Kaspersky Lab, the attack has impacted at least 2,000 targets, primarily in Ukraine, Russia, and Poland, but also extending to the United States, Germany, France, and Italy. The malware exploits vulnerabilities similar to those used by the WannaCry ransomware, which had a significant global impact just last month. The attack has not only affected IT systems but has also led to significant operational disruptions. Notably, operations at a port in Mumbai have been halted, and several major companies such as Rosneft, Maersk, and Mondelez International have reported severe disruptions. Even healthcare services have not been spared, with Pennsylvania’s Heritage Valley Health System reporting major delays due to compromised computer networks.

 

 

Cybersecurity experts stress the importance of maintaining updated and patched systems to fend off such attacks. Chris Wysopal of Veracode highlighted that many organizations fail to apply timely software updates, often due to operational challenges in sectors where systems cannot afford downtime, such as in industrial and airport operations. The scale and sophistication of this attack serve as a stark reminder of the critical need for robust cybersecurity measures across all sectors. Companies are urged to review their security protocols and ensure that their systems are adequately protected against such devastating cyber threats.

[DMH]

 

Q2, 2017 World News Updates

 

Domestic Protests Against Maduro Regime Continues In Spite of GM Plant Takeover - SOUTH AMERICA

Caracas - In spite of Venezuela's controversial seizing of a GM Plant, sparking international outrage, protests against the Maduro Regime have grown in recent weeks. Citing significant economic downturn and repression political opposition, Venezuelans have taken to the streets in several major cities across the country. Protestors have been met with significant pushback from military forces, with the atmosphere in some areas considered tense between the two sides. The Maduro Regime has been noted as seeking diplomatic correspondences abroad as they seek to maintain their international legitimacy. Humanitarian experts warn that a mass exodus of Venezuelans could create a significant crisis in the region.

 

 

Corruption Trial for Former Brazilian President Lula da Silva Expected to Reach Verdict - SOUTH AMERICA

Brasilia - Former embattled Brazilian President Lula da Silva is expected to receive a verdict regarding money laundering and corruption charges in connection to the now-infamous Operation Car Wash, a landmark anti-corruption probe in Brazil. Lula da Silva was expected to be a candidate in the upcoming 2018 Brazilian President Election next year, with some polling showing him actually leading his nearest challengers. Jair Bolsonaro, Fernando Haddad, and Ciro Gomes are current frontrunners in next year's presidential race. Various political and legal leaders have condemned the charges in the case against da Silva as politically-motivated. 

 

 

Europe Reeling from ISWAP Terrorist Attack at Barclaycard Arena in Birmingham - EUROPE

Birmingham - Europe was shaken following the ISWAP attack at Barclaycard Arena in Birmingham, UK that left 41 dead. The United Kingdom has placed itself on alert, with embassies seeing increased security presence across the continent. Vigils have been hosted for the victims of the bombing perpetrated by 21-year-old Oladele Yusuf across Europe since the final death toll was announced. Musician Bruno Mars, who's concert was being held at the arena prior to the bombing, has organized a Pray For Birmingham benefit concert aimed at raising funds for the victims and community with numerous special guests expected to be in attendance like Coldplay, Elton John, Katy Perry, Stevie Wonder, and others. Coming off the heels of attacks in France in 2015 and 2016, the politics of migrants have taken center-stage once again with large demonstrations reported in Paris, London, Rome, Potsdam, Athens, and Maastricht. While nonviolent, the widespread nature of the protests have alarmed EU officials. Migrant policy has become increasingly prevalent on the minds of European voters and could spell future changes on the continent. 

 

 

France Turns to Populism as Le Pen and Mélenchon Advance to Second Round of Presidential Election - EUROPE

Paris - The French political establishment has been rocked to its core as far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon have advanced to the second round of the French Presidential Election. Both the Republicans and the Socialist Party, the two dominant political parties in French politics, have been shut out of the second round. As the political establishment reels from the political earthquake French voters delivered, the National Front and La France Insoumise have kicked their second round campaigns into high gear. Both campaigns have railed against the European Union and have made critical comments regarding NATO, alarming American observers. The bombing at Barclaycard Arena in the UK has inflamed migrant issues as well as economic issues persist. Many voters have expressed dismay over being forced to choose between Le Pen and Mélenchon, with some pundits expecting voter turnout could be lower as a result. Mélenchon has been noted for his use of hologram rallies to galvanize his supporters from more than one location at the same time. French financial markets reacted negatively to the results of the first round.

 

 

Hilary Benn Defeats Jeremy Corbyn for Labour Leader; Liberal Democrat Surprise in UK Local Elections - EUROPE

London - Former Shadow Foreign Minister Hilary Benn has ousted embattled Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn following a no confidence vote due to Corbyn's lackluster support for the Remain Campaign in 2016 and his low poll numbers against Prime Minister David Cameron. Hailing from the soft left wing of the Labour Party, Benn is expected to strike a more center-left tone in regards to key issues while possibly improving their party's credibility on foreign policy that Corbyn particularly struggled with. With the Labour Party still weakened over the split between hard left and soft left forces and a Conservative Party battling Eurosceptic forces within the party and a stubborn UKIP, it was the Liberal Democrats who scored surprising victories in the UK 2017 Local Elections. Making a net gain of 23 council seats, taken mostly from Conservatives and Labour, and a surprising historic victory in the inaugural 2017 Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral election for party candidate Rod Cantrill, has given the party a polling bump. Political experts say the Liberal Democrats could benefit from the internal divisions of both the Labour and Conservative parties, but cite the relative perceived weakness of Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron. 

 

 

Haitian Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Bertrand Aristide Visits the Russian Federation - EUROPE

Moscow - Haiti raised eyebrows with Western observers after Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Bertrand Aristide was seen visiting officials in Moscow. The former president of Haiti before being ousted in a coup, Jean-Bertrand Aristide has openly blamed the United States and France for conspiring to remove him from power back in 2004, a claim both countries deny. Aristide has maintained his blame of the United States and France for his previous ouster even as Foreign Affairs Minister, making comments to the press on various occasions. While Maryse Narcisse sits in Port-au-Prince as President of Haiti since being elected back in 2016, international observers agree that Aristide holds actual power as leader of their Fanmi Lavalas party. The visit to Moscow, which included a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and a announcement of strengthened diplomatic ties, has concerned Western experts who see Haiti attempting to shift away from the West since Fanmi Lavalas returned to power. 

 

 

Moderate Faction Maintains Hold in Iran as Hassan Rouhani Wins Reelection as Iranian President - MIDDLE EAST

Tehran - Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has won reelection, marking a significant victory against more hardline elements in the Iranian Regime. President Rouhani has been noted as a moderate in comparison to his firebrand predecessor. President Rouhani, while highly critical of the West, was instrumental in forging the Iran Nuclear Deal with the United States and other powers to end their efforts at building nuclear weaponry. Western observers have sighed relief over the possibility of hardliners returning to power and threatening the diplomatic landscape. Human rights groups remain highly critical of Rouhani and the Iranian Regime's repression of civil liberties, women's rights, and political opposition. China and Russia were noted as openly congratulating President Rouhani on his successful reelection.

 

 

Chinese Development Projects Across Africa Concern Western Observers - AFRICA

Johannesburg - Recent announcements of Chinese-backed investment into Africa, particularly a port partnership with Tanzania and investments in South Africa, has alarmed Western observers who see Chinese influence growing on the continent at the expense of the West. China has long seen Africa as fertile ground to grow their own economy and invest in large-scale infrastructure projects that increase their influence in the region. While many African counties still remained aligned with the United States and the West, Chinese influence has grown significantly in the past decade. South Africa's inclusion in BRICS, a rival to the G7 that includes both Russia and China, has further accelerated China's ability to expand their influence on the continent.

 

 

South Korea Shocks International Observers as Centrist Businessman Ahn Cheol-soo Wins Presidency in Major Upset - ASIA

Seoul - South Koreans went to the polls and made history as they elected centrist businessman and doctor Ahn Cheol-soo as their next President. Cheol-soo is the leader of a centrist and populist party known as the People Party, which he formed in 2016, and was considered the outsider candidate in the race between center-left and favorite Moon Jae-in and center-right Hong Joon-pyo, who suffered in the polls due to the impeachment of former South Korean President and conservative leader Park Geun-hye in 2016. President-elect Cheol-soo campaigned on more financial support for the poor, better paying jobs for young people, and a tough stance on North Korea despite a previous flip-flop on support of the U.S.-backed THAAD defense system. LGBT groups in South Korea, relatively small in number, have criticized President-elect Cheol-soo for his anti-LGBT record. Pundits overall will be closely watching what this unlikely president will do.

 

 

Experts Question Chinese Economic Health Despite Backlash from Beijing - ASIA

Beijing - The decision by Moody’s Investors Service to downgrade China’s sovereign credit rating from Aa3 to A1sent ripples through the financial markets. As the result of declining growth forecasts and an increased reliance on policy stimulus to prop up the economy,  Chinese goals have lagged behind the required pace to address emerging economic vulnerabilities. While Chinese officials have disputed these claims and have publicly projected calm, some international observers have theorized that the economic issues associated with the downgrade could be worse than anticipated. The credit downgrade, tied to a recent embarrassment for the CCP with the election of a moderate candidate as head of Hong Kong, have caused Xi Jingping and leadership frustration over the past few weeks as economic conditions continue to shape current Chinese policy.

 

 

[DMH]

 

The Far-Right Roars in Europe: Marine Le Pen Elected President of France - Q3, 2017

 

Paris - The people of France, Brussels, and the West are reeling from the aftermath of the French Presidential Election as far-right populist Marine Le Pen decisively defeats left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon to serve as the next President of France. With final vote tallies showing Le Pen defeating Mélenchon by a 54-46 margin in the second round of the presidential election that saw both major French political parties fail to qualify, the National Front will send their leader to the Élysée Palace. Protests have erupted in Paris and other left-wing municipalities across the country in response to the victory for Le Pen and the National Front. The presidential election had the lowest turnout since 1969 with 72.2% of the electorate voting.

 

Le Pen has run as an unapologetic French nationalist with economic populist tendencies. Having sought to moderate her far-right National Front party following the previous leader of the party, her own father, being a well-documented Holocaust denier and antisemite. President-elect Le Pen has railed against migrant communities and has called for a restrictive immigration policy. Buoyed by an emerging migrant crisis on the continent, conservative voters deciding to hold their nose and vote for Le Pen over the far-left Mélenchon, and fears of terrorism following the Barclaycard Arena bombing in the United Kingdom and terrorist attacks in France in previous years, Le Pen has emerged as the reigning political force in France.

 

European Union member states have expressed concern over President-elect Le Pen's call for a "Frexit" which would involve France leaving the European Union, considered by many to be a possible killing blow to the organization should it occur. Le Pen has also called for more normalized relations with the Russian Federation, a position that will certainly rattle EU and Western countries, particular in the wake of the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea. On the note of Crimea, Western powers have sounded the alarm over a pledge made by President-elect Le Pen during the campaign to recognize the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation. Le Pen's call for France leaving the NATO military integrated command structure is also expected to rattle the West as a potential major backslide for NATO's power in the region.

 

A silver lining has emerged as most French pundits do not expect the National Front to gain a outright majority in the French Legislature. Placing a nationwide referendum on France's place in the European Union on the ballot would require approval of the French Legislature, as would a possible withdrawal from NATO's military command structure. Polling indicates that conservative parties, such as the Republicans, will hold a majority in the legislature, with far-left populist parties like Mélenchon's La France Insoumise being a possible unlikely ally on foreign policy while moderates openly oppose her agenda. President-elect Le Pen will have to navigate what is expected to be the most tumultuous time for French politics since the era of Charles de Gaulle.