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Everything posted by Fisher

  1. Fisher

    Press Office of Patrick Carroll (D-MA)

    Carroll Elected H.M.L. Bay Stater Assumes Mantle of Top Ranking Democrat in the House U.S. Congressman Patrick Carroll of Massachusetts was elected the House Majority Leader of the Democratic Party. After ascending to the position unanimously, House Majority Leader Carroll spoke to the press this morning regarding the election and the House Democrats plans going forward: “It is my honor to serve as the new House Majority Leader of the Democratic Party. The legacy of those who have come before me is one of committed service to both the progressive principles of our caucus and the mission. They inspired me and countless others with their hard work and convictions. And to be able to follow in their footsteps is a humbling honor. For the last seven years, we have moved backwards as a nation on too many fronts. Our schools have fewer resources than ever. Poverty is on the rise across the board while the wealthiest in our society reap the benefits provided them by the Reagan Administration. Drug abuse has exploded. Our environment is deteriorating. And most shameful of all is the fact that this administration got off easy with one of the worst scandals and failures of moral leadership in American political history with Iran-Contra. The Democratic Party and I are committed to bipartisanship, but we are committed even more so to the cause of restoring the pride of the working American, standing for the rights of minorities, and ensuring our children have a promising future. We are ready to get to work.”
  2. Press Office of Patrick Carroll
  3. Fisher

    Crystal Ball Game 2018

    House of Reps Q1: How many house seats will each party have following the election? This is the straightforward one. DEMOCRATS: 239 Republicans: 196 Q2: How many races will be "too close to call" as of midnight Pacific Time? 9 Q3: Surprise! Which incumbent will be the most surprising person booted from office? The winner is determined by a casual glance at news coverage, so make sure it is a big name! Steve King will lose his seat in Iowa US Senate Q4: What will be the party breakdown of the US senate following the election? REPUBLICANS: 53 Democrats: 47 (including caucusing independents) Q5: Call Each Race. Percentages are optional. Arizona: Sinema (D) v McSally (R) Florida: Nelson (D) v Scott (R) Indiana: Donnelly (D) v Braun (R) Missouri: McCaskill (D) v Hawley (R) Montana: Tester (D) v Rosendale (R) Nevada: Rosen (D) v Heller (R) North Dakota: Heitkamp (D) v Cramer (R) Texas: O'Rourke (D) v Cruz (R) West Virginia: Manchin (D) v Morrisey (R) Q6: Pick a race not listed in Q5 that will be an upset. Bonus: Tell us the narrative we hear from it. John James upsets Stabenow in Michigan State Governors Q7: What will be the party breakdown of governors following the election? Democrats: 25 Republicans: 25 Q8: Call Each Race. Percentages are optional. Florida: Gillum (D) v DeSantis (R) Georgia: Abrams (D) v Kemp (R) Kansas: Kelly (D) v Kobach (R) Nevada: Sisolak (D) v Laxalt (R) Ohio: Cordray (D) v DeWine (R) Wisconsin: Evers (D) v Walker (R) Q9: Pick a race not listed in Q8 that will be an upset. Bonus: Tell us the narrative we hear from it. Knute Buehler wins in Oregon. Other Q10: Predict something absurd. This is open territory. The more specific, the better. Nancy Pelosi declares on election night that she will consider opening a House investigation into impeaching Trump to pacify the more radical elements of the Democratic base.
  4. Character Name: Patrick Wilson Carroll Political Party: Democratic Faction: Progressives Seat Held: Massachusetts Eighth Date of Birth: January 5, 1925 (age: 63) Place of Birth: Boston, Massachusetts Place of Residence: West Roxbury, Massachusetts Race/Ethnicity: White (Irish, English descent) Gender: Male Religious Affiliation: Roman Catholic Family Information: Wife #1: Francis Durand (m: 1946, divorced: 1954) Wife #2: Lynnette Merchand (m: 1955) Child #1: John Patrick Carroll (w/wife Francis), b: February 19, 1950, pob: Boston, MA Child #2: Charlene Evelyn Carroll, (w/wife Lynnette), b: November 4, 1959, pob: Boston, MA Educational History: Harvard University, B.A. in Politics, Class of 1952 Occupational History: U.S. Marines Corps, 1943 to 1949 City Councilman, Boston, 1953 to 1959 State Senator, Massachusetts, 1959 to 1964 U.S. Congressman from Massachusetts Eighth District, 1965 to present
  5. Fisher

    Compliment the Above

    Because we can all use a compliment now and then.
  6. POST YOUR SPEECHES HERE BY AUGUST 25th at 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time. I will be doing a live coverage event on Telegram covering the events and giving a live reaction to each speech. Maximum of 750 words per speech.
  7. POST YOUR SPEECHES HERE BY AUGUST 25th at 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time. I will be doing a live coverage event on Telegram covering the events and giving a live reaction to each speech. Maximum of 750 words per speech.
  8. Hey guys, I have been giving this some thought and I want to brainstorm with you ideas for improving the approval ratings. Please submit your ideas and thoughts on ways to improve this system. Approval ratings are something everyone looks forward to. It rewards you for your work and I believe you guys deserve better than one every quarter or six months IG. I understand the frustrations of waiting on pins and needles for an approval rating that you feel does not reflect or overlooks your efforts. I am opening the floor to resolve this problem. I am also beginning this discussion because the current system is time consuming and exhausting for me as well. Hunting to see which players were active and which players were not, combing through all the PRs, etc, is not an efficient manner of delivering the goods. I propose the following system as a first draft for a new approval ratings system: 1.) Approval Ratings will be released on a weekly basis. Presidential approval ratings and the congressional ballot will be released twice a week, Sundays and Wednesdays. Every quarter, I will attach analysis to your character's approval. 2.) A new forum will be created, similar to the Voting Record concept, where players will post and keep a tally of their activities each week. This does not require keeping a running calendar, just writing down what you have done over the course of an approvals cycle. Just write down a generic line for each activity such as "Press Release - Syria" or "Surrogate Speech for Candidate Grantham". 3.) A new reputation system, awarding "badges" to characters for exemplary or unethical behavior. For instance, if your character appears on a ton of media programs, you get the "Limelight" badge recognizing you for becoming a household name. If your character is a workaholic, you get the "Work Horse" award. If your character is a passionate, fist-pounding politician, he becomes a "Conservative/Liberal Lion". Point 2 is designed to help you promote and emphasize what each of you feel needs to be considered. That way, I do not miss what you believe is most important to be weighed and considered. Please give these ideas some thought and offer whatever thoughts and ideas you guys have.
  9. Fisher


    @BBCBreakingNews: “Sources in Mexican delegation at Denver summit reveal a single market for the US, Canada, and Mexico is under discussion at the request of President Baudin.”
  10. Fisher


    @BBCBreaking: "UK PM Theresa May announces surprising snap election for this October. First election to occur past month of July since 1974"
  11. Fisher

    Real Clear Politics

    2020 Vision: Early Profiles of Potential Candidates GOP: Wide Open Spaces Plenty of New Faces for High Stakes Nomination; No Clear Frontrunner The White House may be in a prime position to switch hands in 2020. After five presidents in just ten years (Obama, Stevenson, Kline, LeClavers, Baudin), the American people are growing tired of the constant turnover. The emerging divisions in the Democratic Party could result in its most costly primary battle since Kennedy-Carter in the 1980s. And the #SendThemBack movement appears to have fizzled out and lost its relevancy after giving the GOP and 2016 nominee John Moreno a litany of headaches in the last primary. Most of the factors and indicators suggest 2020 has the potential to be a historic year for the Republican Party. But with no clear frontrunner and a perception of partisanship handicapping the Senate and House GOP, the Republicans are far from being in the ideal position to exploit the Democratic dysfunction and infighting. There is a deep field of unique candidates available, all of them new with no carryover candidates from the 2016 primary, but none of whom have taken a commanding lead or presence in the party. Each brings their own strengths as well as a litany of weaknesses. It's a wide open field for the Republican presidential primary in 2020; anyone's ballgame for the honors to take back the White House. Republican Profile #001: DIEGO ZAMORA U.S. Senator from New Mexico If the Republicans are looking to shed their growing reputation of partisanship, there may be no better choice than Senator Diego Zamora. One of the most surprising moments of the 115th Congress was Senator Zamora and progressive lion Osiris Storm proposing a bipartisan education reform proposal. He has been one of the few Republicans who has not appeared as an ideologue over the last few months and is quickly accumulating support and respect from the center-right and moderate elements of the electorate that are disenchanted with the hardline conservatives within the GOP. However, while Diego Zamora may be the ideal general election candidate in terms of appealing to an electorate weary of the divisiveness, he faces a gauntlet of hurdles and obstacles in his path to winning the nomination in 2020. First and foremost, Diego Zamora is not popular among the Tea Party and activist base. One could argue he is even more unpopular with that crowd than Moreno in 2016 or even Mitt Romney in 2012. Many leftover members of the #SendThemBack movement and the Tea Party caucus blame then-Senate Majority Leader Zamora’s leadership as the reason for the party losing the Senate and the presidency in the last election. “We don’t need another blue-state Republican elitist as our nominee,” said Sarah Palin during a Facebook Live session. “Zamora is just another cooky moderate without a spine.” Furthermore, one could argue that Zamora begins at an even greater disadvantage than Moreno or Romney. While Moreno and Romney were certainly closer to the center than their respective opponents (Williams in 2016, Santorum and Gingrich in 2012), both boasted unique advantages in their campaigns that appear to have evaded Zamora to this point. Moreno benefited from the Williams campaign repeatedly shooting itself in the foot while Romney benefited from a conservative base that could not coalesce around a candidate for more than a few weeks at a time, bouncing around between Pawlenty, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and ulimately Santorum. If Zamora runs, there may be more than enough space for two or even three conservatives to credibly challenge him. “Moreno and Romney were not hardline conservatives, but they were both acceptable enough to pigeonhole their conservative opponents. Zamora does not appear to have that advantage.” Finally, for a party exhausted with losing after three straight losses in presidential contests, it may turn its nose at a senator who many (fairly or unfairly) hold responsible for losing the Senate. “It may be inaccurate or unjust to lay all the blame at Senator Zamora’s feet for the GOP losing the Senate in 2016, but it’s a prevalent opinion among many Republicans,” said Larry J. Sabato. So how can Diego Zamora shed the negative perceptions and seize the crown in 2020? For how complex of a problem it may be, there could be a very simple answer. “To be completely honest, if Zamora dominates the debate and wins Iowa and New Hampshire, it would immediately cast Zamora in a new light as a conservative fighter who can win,” said Nate Silver. “Remember, both Romney and Moreno struggled with the first few primary states. Although incredibly difficult, if Zamora were to begin campaigning now, secure Iowa and New Hampshire, and shore up his conservative credibility in the debates and townhalls, he could immediately vault himself into a commanding position in 2020.” However, perhaps a more plausible and likely path forward for Zamora would be to begin building a legislative body of record that can satisfy the majority of conservatives, earn the trust of the corporate donor base and build a financial warchest through their support, and force the conservative wing of the party in a long drawn out primary battle. “If there is one thing that the Tea Party and the right has failed to do over the last ten years is demonstrate the capacity to nominate a credible conservative challenger who can last more than fifteen minutes of fame,” said Larry J. Sabato. “If I’m Diego Zamora, I prepare for a longhaul campaign and dare the right to find a candidate capable of going the distance. That is how I would go about running in 2020.” If Diego Zamora can ultimately capture the Republican nomination, he may pose the best chance in the general election to recapture the White House. The Democratic Party is substantially weaker right now than they were in 2016. The turnover has taken its toll. And they’re bordering on civil war. Moreno came close last time. This cycle may the year and Zamora may be the guy to carry them across the finish line. But before he can get there, he must face a daunting array of challenges and obstacles that could block him reaching his goal.
  12. Fisher

    Real Clear Politics

    2020 Vision: Early Profiles of Potential Candidates Democratic Profile #003: MARC BAUDIN U.S. Senator Vice President President of the United States No incumbent president has ever started with worse positioning heading into a potential primary campaign than Marc Baudin. While economic indicators and foreign news do not indicate electoral disaster, the stark ideological differences and controversies between President Baudin and the Democratic Party have handicapped him. While the primary is still two years away, President Baudin begins at a supreme disadvantage relative to most other incumbents. Today, we will look at why President Baudin is already in trouble and how he may potentially be able to rise and seize the mantle of leadership in the Democratic Party to become the nominee in 2020. No story has dominated the political airwaves more over the last few months or better symbolized the divisions within the Democratic Party than the debate over then-President Harrison LeClavers’ nomination of Marc Baudin for the vice presidency. It split the Senate, but more worrisome exposed ruptures in the fabric of the Democratic Party. While most Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats expressed support for the confirmation of Marc Baudin, the progressive wing of the Senate came out in force to oppose the Ohio Senator on the grounds of his staunch pro-life views among other issues. Among those who expressed alarm at Baudin’s nomination was progressive powerhouse Osiris Storm who poses perhaps the greatest threat to the president’s renomination in 2020. It is undeniable that Baudin’s confirmation passed without the endorsement or even tepid support of the liberal base of the Democratic Party and he has a mountain to climb in terms of gaining their trust. “The progressive base does not like him or trust him,” said Larry J. Sabato. “Not even Jimmy Carter was viewed this skeptically by the left during his administration.” That is not to say that President Baudin has not already tried to mend fences with the left, but so far it has come across as superficial and received a lukewarm response from the progressive inner-circles of the Democratic Party. A C-SPAN report, prior to Senator Brink’s nomination for the vice presidency, revealing that Baudin would tap a pro-choice vice president was met with some mockery. “This president thinks we can be bought off with a second-in-command puppet. We won’t be fooled,” declared Cecile Richards, President of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America. If Baudin elects to run for a full four year term in 2020, he will need to get to work now building a progressive record. Most pundits and analysts agree that it is probably a pointless fight trying to win over the pro-choice vote. “There is next to nothing that President Baudin can do to convince the Lena Dunhams of the world to back him in 2020. They’re not deciding between Baudin and someone else. They’re deciding between Osiris Storm and Kamaka Nikolau,” said Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. “However,” he added, “there does remain the labor unions, the midwesterners, the Blue Dogs, rural Americans, and emerging southern Democrats out there. There is a clear array of constituencies for the president to piece together for a 2020 run and win. It’s going to take a ton of work both in the legislature and in the media circles. But I see a path forward to victory.” Baudin, hailing from the Midwest, would potentially have an advantage at making inroads with the powerful labor unions and their base of voters in delegate rich states like Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. He also would have a solid leg to stand on in the south with Blue Dogs. Assuming Senator Jackson Clay of Indiana decides not to run in 2020 or loses his senate seat in 2018, Baudin would be the Blue Dog favorite and have a firm hold on their support relative to Storm or Nikolao. Furthermore, President Baudin has as good of a shot as anyone at winning over rural voters in states like Iowa, Nebraska, Wyoming, Kansas, and the Dakotas. “I highly doubt that Baudin would enter 2020 with a lead in primary states like California, New York, and Massachusetts. But if he came in there with possession over the midwest, south, and heartland, he’d be in a good position to hang onto the White House,” said Larry J. Sabato. “Again, a lot of this is hypothetical and there a million ways this outcome does not happen. Baudin is not remotely in this position yet. But there is a path forward for him to get there.” It will be interesting to observe President Baudin’s political maneuvering in the coming months. By next January, it is very likely that we will know where #48 is a serious contender or a lame duck to be replaced. All of D.C. will keep its eyes on our young new president as the pieces fall into place for the next presidential election.
  13. Fisher

    Real Clear Politics

    2020 Vision: Early Profiles of Potential Candidates Democratic Profile #003: KAMAKA N. NIKOLAO U.S. Senator from Hawaii No president or vice president has ever come from the 49th or 50th states admitted to the union. But Hawaii does have a shot at landing one of their own in the Oval Office. Honolulu may be 4,000 miles away from D.C., but their Senator Kamaka Nikolao may be closer to the presidency than most think. Although not a dominant public figure on stage of political theater, Nikolao has earned the trust and support of progressives and is well liked in most circles of the Democratic Party. Today, we examine Senator Nikolao and his chances for the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries. When examining the landscape of the Democratic Party’s internal politics, Senator Nikolao clearly lands on the progressive wing of the DNC. Although not as visible or well known as Senator Osiris Storm, his liberal credentials are unimpeachable in terms of his voting record and public stances. If Nikolao decides to run in 2020, he will undoubtedly be campaigning from a position on the left and will be jostling with Senator Osiris Storm for votes from the activist base. And while it is unlikely that he would begin as the frontrunner, Nikolao may have fewer bombshells or tripwires lying in his path than Senator Storm. For instance, while Storm will undoubtedly face skepticism for his controversial decision to endorse Blue Dog Democrat Jackson Clay in 2016 instead of his former progressive boss, President LeClavers, Nikolao has a clean slate in that regard and can pillory the New York Senator for his past allegiances. Furthermore, Nikolao may have far fewer enemies within Democratic leadership than Storm. “People either hate Storm with a passion or love Storm with fierce loyalty,” said one former Democratic colleague. “But with Nikolao, there is near universal respect, if not love or disgust. If Storm is your five alarm bowl of chili with ghost pepper hot sauce, then Nikolao is the chicken noodle soup in the kitchen. Not everyone loves it. Not everyone hates it. But there is more universal acceptance and support.” However, that is not to say that Senator Kamaka Nikolao is without his warts. While other potential candidates like Storm and Senator Jackson Clay have been dominating the airwaves for months, Senator Nikolao has been very quiet in comparison. While it may help keep his name clean of partisan battles, it does set him at a severe disadvantage for the starting gate should his relative silence continue up until the point of announcing a campaign. “Name recognition is everything, which is why you see so many politicians visit states like Iowa and New Hampshire, attend CPAC and Netroots, and push their message and agenda out there,” said Larry J. Sabato. “If Nikolao is going to entertain a run for the White House in 2020, now is the time to start stumping for fellow Democrats and using his press office as a stepladder towards greater notoriety and recognition.” Also, Nikolao would enter the race at a supreme geographical disadvantage. While Senator Storm hails from the delegate rich state of New York and Senator Clay owns the south and portions of the midwest, Senator Nikolao’s home state of Hawaii would provide virtually no advantage for the young politician in a primary. As a matter of fact, one could even argue it would be a disadvantage as both Alaska and Hawaii are in many ways their own countries. Sarah Palin’s emergence on the national stage in 2008 displayed perfectly the numerous differences between mainland Americans and citizens who call the 49th and 50th states their home. It could be extremely difficult for Senator Nikolao, who grew up on the sandy, sun-kissed beaches of Hawaii, to connect with the blue-collar factory workers and rural voters in states like Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. All that being said, however, Nikolao is a real possibility to win the Democratic nomination in 2020. His clearest path to the nomination would likely come in the path of a four way race of President Baudin, Senator Storm, Senator Clay, and Senator Nikolao. While all three of his opponents are controvrsial in their own unique regard, Nikolao could separate himself as the clear consensus candidate an someone who can unite the party. In many ways, a 2020 Nikolao campaign might take a similar pathway to the nomination that another former president took. Warren Harding arrived at the 1920 Republican National Convention as a dark-horse, but ended up winning in light of the severe discontentment with the frontrunners and the desire for an acceptable candidate. And Nikolao, without question, already has a better resume than the one-term Senator Harding had amassed at the time. By the time 2020 has rolled around, the only acceptable option with a shot of receiving the full support of the party just might by Kamaka Nikolao. “It’s still early, but keep an eye on this guy,” said Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. “He’s not a frontrunner at the moment, but he may very well be the one carrying the banner of the Democratic Party come August, 2020.”
  14. Fisher

    New York Times

    KURDISH REBELS SEIZE BATMAN NEW YORK, NEW YORK -- In a stunning response to the mass arrests of prominent public officials in recent days, the Kurds may be in a state of rebellion against the government of Recep Erdogan. Last night, numerous gunshots and explosions led to the news this morning that the city hall of Batman, Turkey, has been seized and occupied by a group of seventy armed individuals. By midday, the entire town had rallied to expel and arrest several non-Kurdish public officials and ban the President Erdogan’s AKP Party. According to reports, the force of seventy expanded into the hundreds and is bordering on four figures as of today with recruits allegedly lining the streets to join. More on this developing situation as information comes in...
  15. Fisher


    @BBCBreakingNews: "Sezai Temelli, Chairman of the Kurdish People's Democratic Party, has been placed under house arrest by Turkish authorities."
  16. Fisher

    Real Clear Politics

    2020 Vision: Early Profiles of Potential Candidates Democratic Profile #002: JACKSON CLAY U.S. Senator from Indiana If only a couple hundred delegates swung in his favor a year and a half ago, we may discussing President Jackson Clay’s chances for reelection. Yet even with his narrow defeat in the 2016 Democratic primaries, Senator Jackson Clay of Indiana remains in prime territory to mount a second bid for the White House in 2020. The godfather of the Blue Dog movement, Jackson Clay is the voice of the Democratic Party’s southern bloc that helped propel Harrison LeClavers to victory last November. Most analysts agree that President LeClavers would have been at a debilitating disadvantage, running against the center-right Republican John Moreno, had Jackson Clay not set aside the divisions of the primary and rallied hard for the president in the general election. And now, while there are many obstacles or question marks on his path ahead, there is no doubt that Jackson Clay is going to be a major power player for several reasons. First and foremost, even though President Baudin was scooped up from the Blue Dog Caucus by then-President LeClavers to be his appointee for the vice presidency, he does not command a fraction of Blue Dog reverence or respect that Jackson Clay receives. Jackson Clay and Marc Baudin may be similarly aligned in terms of their political beliefs and generic ideologies, but only Jackson Clay can tug on the emotional heartstrings of southern Democrats so effectively. He almost upset an incumbent president thanks to their fervor. There is a real possibility that the Blue Dog base may grow disenchanted with President Marc Baudin come 2020, a potentiality made more likely in light of the news that President Baudin will appoint a pro-choice vice president. If President Baudin loses his core Blue Dog constituency, there is a high chance he will be forced to step aside and allow new faces duke it out in the primary which would open a massive door for Jackson Clay to run. So let’s speculate two different scenarios. The first being a primary without President Baudin and where Senator Clay squares off with Senator Osiris Storm. Unlike in 2016 where his name recognition understandably paled in comparison to President LeClavers, Jackson Clay would quite possibly have the upper hand in terms of recognizability. He’d also already have an established network of fundraisers and backers, not to mention the experience of already running four years previously. It would be the progressive, Senator Storm, who might possibly be running at a disadvantage in terms of organizational development and name recognition. However, there is one major question that would likely dog the Clay campaign: will there be Blue Dog fatigue? While an essential demographic to the general election strategy of the Democrats, they are still a rather new phenomenon in the grander scheme of Democratic Party politics. Will the activist base on the left, consisting of women, minorities, and labor, rebel against the Third Way liberals in a similar fashion to the rejection of Tony Blair and the “New Labour” agenda in 2007? As for the second scenario, what if President Baudin were to jump into the race and faceoff against a field including Clay and Osiris Storm? “If we see a three way fight for the Democratic nomination between Baudin, Clay, and Storm, I think we’d likely see Baudin and Clay cannibalize each other and give Osiris Storm the nomination. The same would go if only Baudin or Clay got in the race and Storm had to fend off another progressive like Senator Kamaka N. Nikolao,” said Larry J. Sabato. Ultimately, Jackson Clay is the dominant Blue Dog figure looming over the 2020 Democratic primaries. He is to be feared by both President Baudin and the opposing progressive forces within their party. He came within a stones throw of winning the 2016 nomination, and 2020 may very well be the year that Jackson Clay ascends to the presidency.
  17. Fisher


    @AP: "Canadian PM Trudeau and Mexican President Nieto have both arrived in Denver, Colorado for summit."
  18. Fisher


    @AP: "U.S., Canada, and Mexico will be holding a summit in Denver tomorrow. Trade reportedly a major issue of discussion."
  19. Fisher


    @NYTimes: "The U.S. Embassy in Turkey has opened its doors for Kurdish refugees to apply for asylum"
  20. Fisher


    @BBCBreakingNews: "BREAKING: Turkish authorities have arrested Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek and Kurdish Regional Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani on charges of 'cooperating with the enemy during wartime.'" @BBCBreakingNews: "Government of Iraq is demanding the release of Barzani, an Iraqi Kurd, calling his arrest a 'breach of international law.'"
  21. Fisher

    Real Clear Politics

    2020 Vision: Early Profiles of Potential Candidates Beginning this Friday and continuing over the course of this week, RealClearPolitics will be releasing a daily profile of potential 2020 presidential candidates. Our profiles will consist of expert analysis, sit down interviews, and quotes from both colleagues and the candidates themselves. With campaign announcements less than a year off, the early jostling and positioning has already begun. RCP brings you this series of profiles, starting with the Democrats on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, followed by the Republicans on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and next Friday. Today, we give you our overall analysis of the Democratic Party's chances and our first profile. The Impending Civil War The Progressive-Blue Dog Divide Emerges in the Democratic Party It was only a year ago that the Democratic Party was riding high off their victory in the presidential election. With their electoral map expanding to the south, losses in the Midwest appeared meaningless and of diminishing concern. For the first time since 1992, Georgia turned blue as the Democrats held Virginia and recaptured North Carolina. But a year later, the emergence of the Blue Dog Democrats appears to have been met with firm resistance from the progressive wing of the party. Today, the Democratic Party appears divided between the third-way ‘New Democrats’ of the south and the traditional progressive voters on the coasts and cities of the country. “The current dichotomy within the Democratic Party is serious. Albeit unlikely, it would not completely surprise me if 2020 feels like 1968 with a clash of the more moderate elements of the party and the vocal activist base,” said Larry J. Sabato in a recent interview. “You have Senator Jackson Clay and President Baudin potentially running from the center. Meanwhile, you have progressive darlings Osiris Storm and Senator Kamaka N. Nikolao representing a more diverse base of traditional liberals and minorities.The early teaser trailer for the 2020 Democratic primaries appears to already be promising us plenty of drama to look forward to.” For our first individual of consideration and examination, we decided to sit down and discuss U.S. Senator Osiris Storm. Democratic Profile #001: OSIRIS STORM U.S. Senator from New York Current Position: U.S. Senator from New York Age in 2020: 49 Analysis: Having already served as White House Chief of Staff and now sitting as the United States Senator from New York, Osiris Storm brings the most experience of his potential adversaries to the table. But that is not what matters most to his base of supporters who have rallied around him for the numerous stands he’s taken on matters of civil rights, education reform, and criminal justice reform. Storm has already won over the passionate support of many left wing activists, young people, and minorities; hugely important demographics for the Democratic primaries. If anyone has a remote shot at replicating Barack Obama’s success at turning out the black and Latino vote in 2008, it may very well be Osiris Storm. What’s more, despite his notorious left-leaning views, Senator Storm has shown the capacity to reach across the aisle on reforming the education system and fighting recidivism and mass incarceration. However, for as much as the progressive wing of his party loves him and how well he has worked with Republicans, there may be an army of enemies standing in his way. Described by one anonymous former colleague as a “self-serving son of a b*tch”, Osiris Storm has drawn the ire of many in his party for his past opposition to confirming Senator Marc Baudin as vice president. Another colleague of his criticized him for choosing to endorse Jackson Clay in the 2016 primaries instead of his old boss Harrison LeClavers who he had previously served as Chief of Staff. Furthermore, Storm's experience may not be a positive for him in the end. "Storm has White House experience, which is unique among 2020 hopefuls. But it may be more of a drag than a help going forward,” added Ben Anderson, RCP political guru. When contacted and asked about his potential candidacy in 2020, his office was surprisingly candid about his interest in running. "Senator Storm has been exploring his options and is currently giving a lot of thought of running for Presidency in 2020,” replied his press secretary. “He believes that there are a lot of changes that need to made in the White House, and is leaning toward running in 2020.” When asked further about opinion of Harrison LeClavers prior to his resignation, Senator Storm himself personally commented: “As I strongly support many of the executive orders President LeClavers has made during his first term, I am not very happy with his performance so far. I do not believe he has matched up to his full potential so far in the second term, but I am optimistic that this may just be a minor bump and that he will be full of energy pass midterms" Overall, Osiris Storm presents a unique and youthful pitch to progressives. He has the passionate support of minorities and progressive voters, but has entrenched opponents surrounding him. “He reminds me a bit of Bobby Kennedy back in 1968. If the entire election came down to the black, Latino, and young vote, he’d win in a landslide. But it may be very hard for him to win over the party establishment and Blue Dog voters,” said Larry J. Sabato. Regardless, Osiris Storm is a major player that everyone should watch over the next two years.
  22. Fisher

    New York Times

    FOREIGN POLICY NEWS MIDDLE EAST Syrian Opposition Launches Offensive The Syrian opposition has launched a campaign against government territory in the western region of Syria. According to numerous sources, the Syrian rebels began advancing and beating back the Assad regime’s troops about two weeks ago. While they are still far from reaching or fighting for control of any major cities in the western portion of the country, many experts cite the reports as the first positive news for the beleaguered citizens of Syria in years. “Whether or not the LeClavers administration’s decision to launch airstrikes did anything is still up for debate, but things are changing a little bit on the ground,” said NYT Middle Eastern correspondent Peter Grantham. “The Assad regime is actually retreating a bit here and there may be progress.” Turkish Instability The aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Istanbul may be far worse than any of the bombs that went off. According to reports coming out of southeastern Turkey, tensions between the Erdogan government and Kurdish leaders has devolved into a standoff. While Nechirvan Barzani, Prime Minister of the Kurdish Regional government in Turkey, has publicly condemned the terror attacks, there are numerous reports he and President Erdogan are not seeing eye to eye in terms of addressing the problem. Perhaps most concerning are reports of escalating arrests of Kurdish citizens with some accusing the General Directorate of Security (the Turkish Civilian police) with indiscriminately targeting Kurds. The situation in Turkey seems to be worsening by the day with many wondering what might happen next. ISRAEL: Netanyahu Coalition Govt in Jeopardy? According to reports from inside the ranks of coalition partners The Jewish Home and United Torah Judaism, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government may be on the brink of falling apart. Multiple sources informed the New York Times that emerging disagreements and disenchantment with Prime Minister Netanyahu may prompt to new elections for the Knesset. Hypothetical opinion polling shows the Likud holding a narrow three point lead over Yesh Atid and a ten point lead over the Zionist Union. EUROPE May & Conservatives Score Resounding Victory It turns out that Prime Minister Theresa May’s surprise decision to call for an election was a brilliant one with the Tories expanding their hold on the House of Commons to 392 seats. “This is a resounding win for Britain and we take pride in the work that is to be done,” declared Prime Minister May. The Labour Party, meanwhile, suffered a crushing defeat with their numbers dwindling down to a mere 184. Jeremy Corbyn announced he will be stepping down and the early frontrunners to serve as the new Labour leader include Andy Burnham (Gollum eyes), Liz Cooper, and Dianne Abbott. FRANCE: Macron Narrowly Defeats Le Pen in Thriller The French presidential election came down to the wire after a surprise swing of support in the National Front’s direction following the terror attack in Istanbul. Marine Le Pen highlighted the attack in Istanbul to drive out her voters and it reflected in the polls. In the days before the attack, surveys showed Macron leading Le Pen 61% to 39%. However, that lead shrank dramatically in the aftermath with some polls even showing Le Pen taking a narrow 1% or 2% lead. In the end, Emmanuel Macron managed to squeak out a win by a margin of 50.3% to 49.7%, but many on the international stage fear that Marine Le Pen and the now-National Rally is going to play a major role in French politics for years to come.
  23. Fisher

    July AB Approvals

    Thank you for your feedback. Your recommendation actually is our policy. I try and will continue to release ARs on the same day. The four day delay was the result of an unfortunate real life accident where I sprained my back and required medical attention for several days. Also unfortunate, I must not have articulated and explained that reality well enough to you when I answered your several inquiries over TG as to when the approvals would be released. Rest assured, I don’t anticipate any severe rhomboid sprains interfering with the release of approvals in the future and expect ARs will be released uniformly or in quick succession in the future.
  24. Fisher

    Approval Ratings

    Approval Ratings, Republicans (PM me if I overlooked your character) Diego Zamora (Republican - New Mexico) Approval: 51% Disapproval: 40% Undecided: 9% Analysis: When you’re a Republican in a blue-state, what do you have to do to remain relevant? Strike deals and appear reasonable. And Senator Zamora has clearly distinguished himself capable of working with even the most liberal of Senators (Osiris Storm. While he is no longer Senate Majority Leader, Zamora’s stature and respect in his homestate has in fact elevated thanks to his new freedom to negotiate and work across the aisle. George Maynard (Republican - North Dakota) Approval: 54% Disapproval: 39% Undecided: 7% Analysis: Republicans love him, Democrats hate him. Whether it be his bold unabashed defense of North Dakota's fossil fuel industry or his ridicule of the SCOTUS decision to legalize same-sex marriage, George Maynard has clearly made himself into the most prominent conservative right now in the Republican caucus. What's more though, he is catering well to his constituency. The Keystone Pipeline bill is important and well liked by North Dakota voters. However, he does need to do a better job with his press office or it may negatively affect turnout and enthusiasm come the midterms. And it wasn't too long ago that North Dakota, at least in midterm elections, was a blue state. John Saunders (Republican - Texas) Approval: 51% Disapproval: 43% Undecided: 6% Analysis: Saunders is winning over the right wing demographic of Texas politics with ease. However, his popularity among moderates and even some center-right Republicans has slid a bit in light of perceived partisanship. In light of shifting demographics in Texas, it would help Saunders to reach across the aisle once or twice to help keep the more moderate Republicans in his camp. That’s all he really needs to do to guarantee reelection in a state like Texas that remains a red bastion. Grayson Kahuhu (Republican - Idaho) Approval: 49% Disapproval: 32% Undecided: 19% Analysis: Kahuhu has proposed many highly noncontroversial bills. While this definitely establishes goodwill, it does not ultimately shift the heavy chips on the table in your favor. The Senator did propose a bill banning abortion in the second trimester. These are the types of bills that will appeal to the highly important conservative base in Idaho. Kahuhu should make use of the luxury of being able to be boldly conservative, something other Republicans in bluer states like New Mexico can’t quite do. Rick Prescott (Republican - New Hampshire) Approval: 47% Disapproval: 43% Undecided: 10% Analysis: Senator Prescott is a promising young politician, but he needs to keep his voting record updated. Overall, the people of New Hampshire are pleased for the most part with his voting patterns, but do wish he could follow more in the mold of Senator Zamora in delivering on bipartisan legislation designed to better cater to their needs. Overall, a good start.
  25. Fisher

    Approval Ratings

    Democratic Approvals, Q4, 2017 Osiris Storm (Democrat - New York) Approval: 54% Disapproval: 40% Undecided: 6% Analysis: Osiris Storm has emerged as the definitive face of numerous factions of the Democratic Party. African-Americans, Latinos, young people, and the progressive activists base of the Democratic Party are all falling in love with the New York Senator. Perhaps most surprising of all, however, is he has demonstrated the ability to work across the aisle to strike and pass bipartisan deals to overhaul the education system and drug laws. However, He has made many enemies already among the Blue Dogs and he has not been without controversy when wielding a gavel. Overall, though, Senator Osiris Storm is quickly positioning himself as one of the major faces of progressive politics for years to come. Kamaka Nikolao (Democrat - Hawaii) Approval: 50% Disapproval: 34% Undecided: 16% Analysis: Nikolao has distinguished himself as a reliable presence for the Democrats and progressives on Capitol Hill. While he lacks the public notoriety of Senator Osiris Storm, he has quietly been able to make forays into key demographics such as minorities. He is representing his state well while also proposing legislation to help clean up the culture of corruption in Washington D.C. HHe is a less controversial progressive than Storm and is undoubtedly positioning himself well as a surrogate and potential party leader for 2018 and 2020. Jackson Clay (Democrat - Indiana) Approval: 50% Disapproval: 43% Undecided: 7% Analysis: Jackson Clay is now, without the question, the most powerful Blue Dog in D.C. With Marc Baudin's nomination barely scrapping by to become vice president, it now leaves the Indiana Senator as the main and lone voice of the moderate Democrats. Senate Minority Leader Clay has voted in line with the party's interests and kept his own position safe. While Indiana remains a right leaning state, they are impressed and cautiously satisfied with Senator Clay for the time being.

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